A.V. The Libyan crisis and Italy’s national security

The rapid deterioration of the security situation in Libya and the subsequent advance of IS pose a direct threat to Europe and to Italy in particular;
The conflict could attract a new wave of European foreign fighters, who could eventually return to Europe concealed among irregular immigrants crossing the Mediterranean. This scenario would increase the risk of lone wolves attacks in the short-medium term;
Italy may intervene in Libya in case of a UN mandate authorizing the use of force or if an attack against Italian interests is perpetrated or believed imminent;
In case of military intervention, Italy may experience isolated terrorist attacks on its soil, attacks and kidnappings against its interests and nationals abroad, increased immigration, piracy attacks in the South Mediterranean and a political crisis;

Saggio